Comment

Representation ID: 22154

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91 respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 2019-38 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.
3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy.
3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.
Exceeding the minimum housing need
3.12 The standard method also only provides the minimum local housing need, and the PPG (2a-010) identifies that this should be exceeded including in situations where there is a growth strategy or where strategic infrastructure improvements may drive an increase in housing need or where previous assessments of need are significantly greater than the standard method. All three of these situations arise in Greater Norwich.
The City Deal
3.13 Paragraph 13 of the Draft Local Plan identifies that the Greater Norwich City Deal requirements will be met through the Draft Local Plan. As the Greater Norwich City Deal forms a growth strategy which has been agreed with Government, the Local Plan is required to meet the requirements of the City Deal as this forms part of national policy as set out in paragraph 6 of the NPPF.
3.14 The City Deal identifies that strategic infrastructure is needed including to deliver a step change in housing delivery. It sets a target for an average of 3,000 homes per annum in the period 2014-19 and for3.15 MHCLG Live Tables identify that only 10,715 houses were built in the period 2014-19 in addition to the equivalent of 581 homes provided as student and older persons bedspaces. This provides a total of 11,296 or an average of only 2,259 homes per annum. It is therefore apparent that the short-term target of the City Deal has not been met and that accordingly this shortfall of 3,704 homes should be addressed as soon as possible to achieve the objectives of the City Deal. No such short-term uplift to remedy this shortfall is made within the Draft Local Plan contrary to the requirements of national policy in the form of the City Deal.
3.16 In the period 2008-19, the MHCLG Live Tables identify an equivalent of 19,416 housing completions, which means that in order to provide 37,000 homes in the period 2008-26 it will be necessary to deliver the remaining 17,584 in the period 37,000 homes to be delivered in the period 2008-26.2019-26 or an average of 2,512 per annum. However, the housing need identified in emerging Policy 1 of 40,550 homes 1 only provides for an average need of 2,028 homes per annum. The housing need of the Draft Local Plan therefore again does not provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the housing needs identified in the City Deal.
3.17 It is therefore evident that the Draft Local Plan does not meet any of the targets of the City Deal and that it is accordingly not effective, not justified, not positively prepared and inconsistent with national policy.
Previous assessments of need
3.18 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies that there was a need to deliver 44,714 homes from 2015-36 to accord with the City Deal. In the period 2015-18, the equivalent of 6,680 homes were delivered and so there is a residual need for 38,034 homes from 2018-36, or 2,113 per annum.
3.19 Assuming that this need remained constant across the period 2036-38, there would be a need for 42,260 homes to accord with the City Deal based on the latest assessment of housing need. The Local Plan does not therefore provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the latest assessment of need or to accord with the City Deal.