Draft Greater Norwich Local Plan – Part 1 The Strategy

Comment

Representation ID: 22348

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Policy 7.4 – Village Clusters
7.28 The GNLP proposes a disproportionately high level of growth at the Village Clusters, a significant proportion of which are on as yet unknown sites to be identified in the South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Plan.
7.29 Village Clusters are by definition less sustainable locations for growth and accordingly it would be expected that development would be restricted to that necessary to support rural or local needs. However, the GNLP seeks to direct more development to such settlements than to Key Service Centres which have a relatively good range of services, access to public transport and employment opportunities and play a vital role in serving the rural areas according to paragraph 333 of the GNLP. Similarly, paragraph 308 identifies that the Main Towns serve the wider hinterlands including these Village Clusters. This would suggest that the needs of rural areas would be more sustainably provided for through development at the Key Service Centres and Main Towns contrary to the strategy proposed in the GNLP. The GNLP strategy is even less sustainable, given that development at the Key Service Centres and Main Towns provides the opportunity to enhance community facilities which serve the rural areas.
7.30 Furthermore, the reliance upon a specific contribution from the unknown sites yet to be identified in South Norfolk may require unsustainable sites to be brought forward rather than identifying more sustainable sites now. In the absence of such specific sites being identified and allocated this will also adversely affect the housing land supply position of the Councils and provide for a lack of certainty going forward.

Comment

Representation ID: 22349

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Policy 7.4 – Village Clusters
7.28 The GNLP proposes a disproportionately high level of growth at the Village Clusters, a significant proportion of which are on as yet unknown sites to be identified in the South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Plan.
7.29 Village Clusters are by definition less sustainable locations for growth and accordingly it would be expected that development would be restricted to that necessary to support rural or local needs. However, the GNLP seeks to direct more development to such settlements than to Key Service Centres which have a relatively good range of services, access to public transport and employment opportunities and play a vital role in serving the rural areas according to paragraph 333 of the GNLP. Similarly, paragraph 308 identifies that the Main Towns serve the wider hinterlands including these Village Clusters. This would suggest that the needs of rural areas would be more sustainably provided for through development at the Key Service Centres and Main Towns contrary to the strategy proposed in the GNLP. The GNLP strategy is even less sustainable, given that development at the Key Service Centres and Main Towns provides the opportunity to enhance community facilities which serve the rural areas.
7.30 Furthermore, the reliance upon a specific contribution from the unknown sites yet to be identified in South Norfolk may require unsustainable sites to be brought forward rather than identifying more sustainable sites now. In the absence of such specific sites being identified and allocated this will also adversely affect the housing land supply position of the Councils and provide for a lack of certainty going forward.

Comment

Representation ID: 22360

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

2. VISION AND OBJECTIVES
2.1 The Vision for Greater Norwich identifies that the GNLP will stimulate the creation of a strong, enterprising, productive and broad-based economy including through the provision of smaller scale employment sites within the market towns and villages to provide access to jobs for all. This accords with the economic objective of sustainable development which is to be welcomed. It will require that an appropriate distribution of jobs and homes is achieved through the plan.
2.2 The Vision aims to ensure that people of all ages will have good access to services and facilities including schools, health care, and community facilities which will reduce the need to travel. This accords with the economic, social and environmental objectives of sustainable development which is supported. It will require that housing which supports the needs of all age groups is delivered in locations which have good access to community facilities particularly with good access to sustainable transport connections.
2.3 The Vision seeks to ensure that a range of types, tenures and sizes of homes will have been built to respond to the needs of the area, including those of the older population and those in affordable need. Again, this accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is supported.
2.4 The Vision then indicates that the need to travel will have reduced including through a better alignment of the distribution of homes and facilities, an increase in home working, as well as an increase in the use of sustainable modes of transport. This will require that new housing is provided at locations where there is a shortage of workers and/or that housing is provided in locations with sustainable transport connections to major employment hubs.
2.5 The Vision also identifies that educational and healthcare facilities will have been expanded or new facilities provided which again accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is to be welcomed.

Comment

Representation ID: 22362

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

2. VISION AND OBJECTIVES
2.1 The Vision for Greater Norwich identifies that the GNLP will stimulate the creation of a strong, enterprising, productive and broad-based economy including through the provision of smaller scale employment sites within the market towns and villages to provide access to jobs for all. This accords with the economic objective of sustainable development which is to be welcomed. It will require that an appropriate distribution of jobs and homes is achieved through the plan.
2.2 The Vision aims to ensure that people of all ages will have good access to services and facilities including schools, health care, and community facilities which will reduce the need to travel. This accords with the economic, social and environmental objectives of sustainable development which is supported. It will require that housing which supports the needs of all age groups is delivered in locations which have good access to community facilities particularly with good access to sustainable transport connections.
2.3 The Vision seeks to ensure that a range of types, tenures and sizes of homes will have been built to respond to the needs of the area, including those of the older population and those in affordable need. Again, this accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is supported.
2.4 The Vision then indicates that the need to travel will have reduced including through a better alignment of the distribution of homes and facilities, an increase in home working, as well as an increase in the use of sustainable modes of transport. This will require that new housing is provided at locations where there is a shortage of workers and/or that housing is provided in locations with sustainable transport connections to major employment hubs.
2.5 The Vision also identifies that educational and healthcare facilities will have been expanded or new facilities provided which again accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is to be welcomed.

Comment

Representation ID: 22363

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

2. VISION AND OBJECTIVES
2.1 The Vision for Greater Norwich identifies that the GNLP will stimulate the creation of a strong, enterprising, productive and broad-based economy including through the provision of smaller scale employment sites within the market towns and villages to provide access to jobs for all. This accords with the economic objective of sustainable development which is to be welcomed. It will require that an appropriate distribution of jobs and homes is achieved through the plan.
2.2 The Vision aims to ensure that people of all ages will have good access to services and facilities including schools, health care, and community facilities which will reduce the need to travel. This accords with the economic, social and environmental objectives of sustainable development which is supported. It will require that housing which supports the needs of all age groups is delivered in locations which have good access to community facilities particularly with good access to sustainable transport connections.
2.3 The Vision seeks to ensure that a range of types, tenures and sizes of homes will have been built to respond to the needs of the area, including those of the older population and those in affordable need. Again, this accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is supported.
2.4 The Vision then indicates that the need to travel will have reduced including through a better alignment of the distribution of homes and facilities, an increase in home working, as well as an increase in the use of sustainable modes of transport. This will require that new housing is provided at locations where there is a shortage of workers and/or that housing is provided in locations with sustainable transport connections to major employment hubs.
2.5 The Vision also identifies that educational and healthcare facilities will have been expanded or new facilities provided which again accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is to be welcomed.

Comment

Representation ID: 22364

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

3. POLICY 1 – THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
3.1 Policy 1 sets out the proposed strategy and includes the proposed housing requirement, the proposed employment land requirement, the approach to fiveyear land supply and the spatial strategy. These are addressed below.
3.2 Policy 1 also sets out the approach to supporting infrastructure and the proposed distribution of development which are addressed in greater detail in Policies 4 and 7.1 to 7.4 respectively. These matters are responded to under those Policies rather than in response to Policy 1.
Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplacebased house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplacebased house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91 respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 201938 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.
3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy. 3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.
Exceeding the minimum housing need
3.12 The standard method also only provides the minimum local housing need, and the PPG (2a-010) identifies that this should be exceeded including in situations where there is a growth strategy or where strategic infrastructure improvements may drive an increase in housing need or where previous assessments of need are significantly greater than the standard method. All three of these situations arise in Greater Norwich.
The City Deal
3.13 Paragraph 13 of the Draft Local Plan identifies that the Greater Norwich City Deal requirements will be met through the Draft Local Plan. As the Greater Norwich City Deal forms a growth strategy which has been agreed with Government, the Local Plan is required to meet the requirements of the City Deal as this forms part of national policy as set out in paragraph 6 of the NPPF.
3.14 The City Deal identifies that strategic infrastructure is needed including to deliver a step change in housing delivery. It sets a target for an average of 3,000 homes per annum in the period 2014-19 and for 37,000 homes to be delivered in the period 2008-26.
3.15 MHCLG Live Tables identify that only 10,715 houses were built in the period 2014-19 in addition to the equivalent of 581 homes provided as student and older persons bedspaces. This provides a total of 11,296 or an average of only 2,259 homes per annum. It is therefore apparent that the short-term target of the City Deal has not been met and that accordingly this shortfall of 3,704 homes should be addressed as soon as possible to achieve the objectives of the City Deal. No such short-term uplift to remedy this shortfall is made within the Draft Local Plan contrary to the requirements of national policy in the form of the City Deal.
3.16 In the period 2008-19, the MHCLG Live Tables identify an equivalent of 19,416 housing completions, which means that in order to provide 37,000 homes in the period 2008-26 it will be necessary to deliver the remaining 17,584 in the period 2019-26 or an average of 2,512 per annum. However, the housing need identified in emerging Policy 1 of 40,550 homes only provides for an average of 2,028 homes per annum. The housing need of the Draft Local Plan therefore again does not provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the housing needs identified in the City Deal.
3.17 It is therefore evident that the Draft Local Plan does not meet any of the targets of the City Deal and that it is accordingly not effective, not justified, not positively prepared and inconsistent with national policy.
Previous assessments of need
3.18 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies that there was a need to deliver 44,714 homes from 2015-36 to accord with the City Deal. In the period 2015-18, the equivalent of 6,680 homes were delivered and so there is a residual need for 38,034 homes from 2018-36, or 2,113 per annum.
3.19 Assuming that this need remained constant across the period 2036-38, there would be a need for 42,260 homes to accord with the City Deal based on the latest assessment of housing need. The Local Plan does not therefore provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the latest assessment of need or to accord with the City Deal.
The housing need of students
3.20 The standard method is informed by the 2014-based household projections which assume that the five-year migration trends which were experienced in the period 2009-14 will be maintained. The Higher Education Statistics Authority (HESA) identified that University of East Anglia (UEA) had 16,640 students and the Norwich University of the Arts had 1,485 students in 2009 providing a total of 18,125, but that this had increased to 18,140 by 2014 with 16,265 at UEA and 1,875 at the University of Arts. The 2014-based projections which inform the standard method therefore assumes that the student population will increase by 15 people over five years or 3 per annum.
3.21 Paragraph 45 of the Draft Local Plan however indicates that the Universities in Norwich are expected to expand. In particular, the University of East Anglia (UEA) has announced plans to incre3.22 The increased migration of 297 students per annum3, even assuming that the student population of the University of the Arts remains constant, are not taken into account in the projections.
3.23 These additional students at UEA will clearly have an impact on the housing need in Greater Norwich which is not taken into account within the standard method. Either these will generate a need for an additional 2,970 bedspaces which is equivalent to 1,042 houses or if these students are accommodated in the housing stock it will be necessary to deliver an additional 1,042 homes to accommodate them. It will be necessary to deliver such accommodation to meet the objectively assessed needs and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP.
3.24 Once the needs of these additional students are taken into account this would increase the minimum local housing need from either 41,379 or 41,361 to either 42,421 or 42,403 homes over the plan period. This broadly accords with the 42,260 homes necessary to accord with the City Deal.
The needs of those in institutional accommodation
3.25 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies a need for 3,909 people aged 75 or over to be accommodated in residential institutions over the period 2015-36. The 2014 based institutional population projections identify an increase of 2,060 such people within the GNLP area over the period 2015-38 comprising 1,088 in Broadland, 291 in Norwich and 681 in South Norfolk.
3.26 In the period 2015-18, a total of 234 bedspaces in older persons communal establishments were built, including 7 in Broadland, 225 in Norwich and 2 in South Norfolk. This leaves a residual need for 1,826 bedspaces in the period 2018-36, comprising 1,081 in Broadland, 57 in Norwich and 679 in South Norfolk.
3.27 The household projections which inform both the SHMA and the standard method do not include this population and the SHMA correctly recognises that in the absence of 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments the population who would have occupied these will remain in the dwelling stock rather than releasing them as assumed in the projections. ase its students from 15,000 to 18,000 in the next decade, an increase of 300 students per annum. 3.28 It is therefore apparent that there is a need for 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments in addition to the standard method and that in the absence of such provision the housing requirement will need to increase as fewer dwellings will be released to the market. The number of dwellings that would not be released in the absence of such residential institutions is 987 using the calculation identified in the PPG (63-016a) comprising 584 in Broadland, 33 in Norwich and 369 in South Norfolk.
3.29 It will therefore either be necessary to make provision for the 1,826 bedspaces or increase the housing requirement by 987 homes to meet the objectively assessed needs within the GNLP and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP. This would result in a need for either 43,408 or 43,390 homes or to 42,421 or 42,403 homes and 1,826 bedspaces.
The housing requirement
3.30 The Delivery Statement on page 37 indicates that the Draft Local Plan provides a sufficient supply of housing sites to exceed the identified housing need of 40,550 homes by 9%. However, as identified above, there is actually a need for at least 42,400 homes to accord with the City Deal, meet the minimum local housing need and to accommodate the growth plans of UEA as well as a need for an additional 1,800 bedspaces in communal establishments.
3.31 In order to provide sufficient flexibility to ensure that these minimum needs will be delivered, taking account of the non-delivery of sites, it has been found by numerous Inspectors that it is appropriate to set the housing requirement above the minimum housing need4 as the Draft Local Plan seeks to do.
3.32 In Greater Norwich, the housing trajectory of the Joint Core Strategy identified that there would be 23,637 housing completions in the period 2008-19. However, only 18,835 homes have been delivered which demonstrates that at least historically, the trajectory of Greater Norwich overestimates the developable supply by circa 25%. Assuming that the current trajectory is equally as accurate, it would be appropriate to set a housing requirement 25% in excess of the minimum need for circa 42,400 homes. This would produce a housing requirement for circa 53,000 homes. This is illustrative that there is a need for a significant contingency allowance in Greater Norwich to ensure that needs are actually met. It is therefore recommended that the proposed contingency of 9% is retained as a minimum but this should be significantly greater, which in addition to the minimum housing need for circa 42,400 homes produce a housing requirement for at least 46,216 homes.
Contingency to respond to changes
3.33 The Government has identified an intention to review the standard method in September 2020 and this will be required to be responded to in the Greater Norwich Local Plan to meet the minimum local housing needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008). This proposed review of the standard method means that the minimum housing needs may change from the 42,400 identified above. It may be that the minimum housing needs increase significantly and accordingly a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to ensure that the emerging GNLP will be able to respond to the identified minimum needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008).
3.34 Whilst it is not possible to identify the need which will arise from this review at present, it is considered that a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to significantly exceed the identified need for at least 42,400 homes and provide confidence that the minimum needs arising from the review will be able to be accommodated.
Employment Land Requirement
3.35 As set out in the GNLP, there is no quantitative need for additional employment sites. Nevertheless, the GNLP allocates an additional 40ha providing a total of 360ha of employment land allocations to meet the underlying demand and provide choice to the market.
3.36 Whilst these allocations will assist the economic growth of the area and represent positive planning, if a significant proportion of these are actually developed and occupied, they will be dependent upon greater numbers of incommuters from outside of the plan area. Accordingly, an appropriate monitoring framework should be put in place to ensure that a sufficient number of homes are provienvironmental harms of a greater dependency on long-distance commuting flows.
3.37 If the monitoring framework indicates that a greater number of jobs have been accommodated than the growth in the resident workforce such that the economy of the area becomes more dependent upon unsustainable long-distance incommuting flows, this should trigger an immediate review of the GNLP alongside a policy response with residential planning applications being considered more favourably until such time as the GNLP review is adopted to address the imbalance.
The approach to five-year land supply
3.38 Policy 1 proposes that the five-year land supply will be assessed across the plan area and that enough allocations are provided to demonstrate a five-year land supply at adoption. However, there is no evidence that this is the case as the GNLP is not supported by a housing trajectory contrary to paragraph 73 of the NPPF. Pegasus Group reserve the right to respond on this matter when the necessary evidence is made available.
Spatial Strategy
3.39 The Table at Policy 1 details the distribution of housing supply across the settlement hierarchy, including proposed new allocations as follows;
- Norwich urban area - 30,560 dwellings – approximately 70% of supply
- Main towns – 6,342 dwellings – approximately 14% of supply
- Key Service Centres – 3,417 dwellings – approximately 8% of supply
- Village clusters – 4,024 dwellings – approximately 9% of supply
3.40 Policies 7.1 to 7.5 provide further detail on the distribution of sites and the composition of existing and proposed allocations with regard to their size and brown or green field status.
3.41 Our clients raise concern over the proposed spatial strategy of the emerging GNLP owing to its over reliance on housing delivery in the Norwich urban area and the proposed discrepancy in terms of settlement hierarchy between the ded to accommodate the workforce to avoid the resultant quantum of housing allocated to Main Towns, Key Service Centres and Village Clusters.
3.42 While the Norwich urban area is a sustainable location for growth, reliance on this area for the delivery of approximately 70% of the housing growth of the GNLP up to 2038 places a requirement on existing infrastructure to accommodate an additional 30,560 dwellings in the plan period, it also requires an annual delivery rate within the area of 1,698 dwellings per annum over each of the next 18 years. This requires that the level of development in Norwich urban area alone is broadly consistent with that which has been achieved across the entire GNLP plan area since 2008. This does not appear to be realistic. If the necessary boost to housing supply is to be achieved this will require a greater range and choice of sites across all of the sustainable settlements within the plan area.
3.43 Moreover, reference to Policy 7.1 demonstrates that delivery within the Norwich Urban Area is predicated on two substantial brownfield regeneration areas, the Northern City Regeneration Area and the East Norwich Strategic Regeneration Area and several urban extensions of over 1,000 dwellings each.
3.44 Brownfield regeneration is costly and time consuming and often involves the bringing together of multiple delivery partners to achieve. The likelihood of the totality of development proposed through regeneration delivering in the plan period is therefore slim.
3.45 New strategic urban extensions can also be timely to deliver with the need for new strategic infrastructure in terms of highways and drainage to be delivered in advance of new homes.
3.46 The Councils have not produced evidence to substantiate the delivery trajectory of the brownfield regeneration sites or the urban extensions in the Norwich Urban Area. We reserve the right to comment further on this matter at the Regulation 19 consultation stage. Delay in delivery at either source of supply could prejudice the delivery of the housing requirement of the GNLP and therefore go to the soundness of the plan.
3.47 Additional certainty over the delivery of the housing requirement could be achieved by changing the emphasis of the spatial strategy by allocating more housing to the Main Towns, including Diss, and the Key Service Centres with anassociated reduction in the percentage to be delivered in Norwich urban area and the Village Clusters.
3.48 Diss in particular is identified in the Reg 18 GNLP as having capacity for additional employment development. Diss is a net importer of workers with 2011 Census data showing only 4,939 economically active people living in the town compared to the 5,623 people working there. In order to balance homes and jobs and provide for sustainable development it is necessary for more houses to come forward at Diss, especially given the re-allocation of 10.8ha of employment land at the Town in the Reg 18 GNLP.
3.49 Additionally, we have concerns over the fact that more dwellings are proposed in the spatial strategy across Village Clusters than are allocated at Key Service Centres, including a minimum of 1,200 dwellings through a South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Development Plan Document.
3.50 Without certainty over the supply of land to deliver such a quantum of development in South Norfolk Village Clusters the soundness of the spatial strategy is questionable. As a percentage of the overall new housing allocations in the Reg 18 GNLP the current spatial strategy delegates approximately 15% to a document outside of its control (1200/7,840). This is not considered to be a reasonable approach and prejudices the delivery of the emerging GNLP by 2038.
3.51 A Settlement Hierarchy approach to the distribution of development would look to allocate a higher percentage of housing to more sustainable locations with smaller amounts being allocated to lower order settlements in recognition that small developments at villages can help maintain service provision, provide vitality and help address local market and affordable housing needs.
3.52 In failing to provide an increased number of dwellings at Main Towns and Key Service Centres the Councils are also missing the opportunities presented by Pigeon to provide new community facilities that can support existing and proposed new development in sustainable locations for the plan period and beyond.
3.53 The preceding representations on the Spatial Strategy are all set in the context that the identified housing need does not even accord with the minimum set by national policy and does not take account of the needs of specific groups. It is therefore evident that the quantitative elements of the Spatial Strategy will need to be revised to ensure that housing needs can be met across the GNLP area. This should be achieved through directing more growth to the Main Towns and Key Service Centres to counterbalance the disproportionate levels of growth proposed within the Norwich urban area and Village Clusters.

Comment

Representation ID: 22365

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

3. POLICY 1 – THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
3.1 Policy 1 sets out the proposed strategy and includes the proposed housing requirement, the proposed employment land requirement, the approach to fiveyear land supply and the spatial strategy. These are addressed below.
3.2 Policy 1 also sets out the approach to supporting infrastructure and the proposed distribution of development which are addressed in greater detail in Policies 4 and 7.1 to 7.4 respectively. These matters are responded to under those Policies rather than in response to Policy 1.
Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplacebased house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplacebased house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91 respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 201938 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.
3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy. 3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.
Exceeding the minimum housing need
3.12 The standard method also only provides the minimum local housing need, and the PPG (2a-010) identifies that this should be exceeded including in situations where there is a growth strategy or where strategic infrastructure improvements may drive an increase in housing need or where previous assessments of need are significantly greater than the standard method. All three of these situations arise in Greater Norwich.
The City Deal
3.13 Paragraph 13 of the Draft Local Plan identifies that the Greater Norwich City Deal requirements will be met through the Draft Local Plan. As the Greater Norwich City Deal forms a growth strategy which has been agreed with Government, the Local Plan is required to meet the requirements of the City Deal as this forms part of national policy as set out in paragraph 6 of the NPPF.
3.14 The City Deal identifies that strategic infrastructure is needed including to deliver a step change in housing delivery. It sets a target for an average of 3,000 homes per annum in the period 2014-19 and for 37,000 homes to be delivered in the period 2008-26.
3.15 MHCLG Live Tables identify that only 10,715 houses were built in the period 2014-19 in addition to the equivalent of 581 homes provided as student and older persons bedspaces. This provides a total of 11,296 or an average of only 2,259 homes per annum. It is therefore apparent that the short-term target of the City Deal has not been met and that accordingly this shortfall of 3,704 homes should be addressed as soon as possible to achieve the objectives of the City Deal. No such short-term uplift to remedy this shortfall is made within the Draft Local Plan contrary to the requirements of national policy in the form of the City Deal.
3.16 In the period 2008-19, the MHCLG Live Tables identify an equivalent of 19,416 housing completions, which means that in order to provide 37,000 homes in the period 2008-26 it will be necessary to deliver the remaining 17,584 in the period 2019-26 or an average of 2,512 per annum. However, the housing need identified in emerging Policy 1 of 40,550 homes only provides for an average of 2,028 homes per annum. The housing need of the Draft Local Plan therefore again does not provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the housing needs identified in the City Deal.
3.17 It is therefore evident that the Draft Local Plan does not meet any of the targets of the City Deal and that it is accordingly not effective, not justified, not positively prepared and inconsistent with national policy.
Previous assessments of need
3.18 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies that there was a need to deliver 44,714 homes from 2015-36 to accord with the City Deal. In the period 2015-18, the equivalent of 6,680 homes were delivered and so there is a residual need for 38,034 homes from 2018-36, or 2,113 per annum.
3.19 Assuming that this need remained constant across the period 2036-38, there would be a need for 42,260 homes to accord with the City Deal based on the latest assessment of housing need. The Local Plan does not therefore provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the latest assessment of need or to accord with the City Deal.
The housing need of students
3.20 The standard method is informed by the 2014-based household projections which assume that the five-year migration trends which were experienced in the period 2009-14 will be maintained. The Higher Education Statistics Authority (HESA) identified that University of East Anglia (UEA) had 16,640 students and the Norwich University of the Arts had 1,485 students in 2009 providing a total of 18,125, but that this had increased to 18,140 by 2014 with 16,265 at UEA and 1,875 at the University of Arts. The 2014-based projections which inform the standard method therefore assumes that the student population will increase by 15 people over five years or 3 per annum.
3.21 Paragraph 45 of the Draft Local Plan however indicates that the Universities in Norwich are expected to expand. In particular, the University of East Anglia (UEA) has announced plans to incre3.22 The increased migration of 297 students per annum3, even assuming that the student population of the University of the Arts remains constant, are not taken into account in the projections.
3.23 These additional students at UEA will clearly have an impact on the housing need in Greater Norwich which is not taken into account within the standard method. Either these will generate a need for an additional 2,970 bedspaces which is equivalent to 1,042 houses or if these students are accommodated in the housing stock it will be necessary to deliver an additional 1,042 homes to accommodate them. It will be necessary to deliver such accommodation to meet the objectively assessed needs and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP.
3.24 Once the needs of these additional students are taken into account this would increase the minimum local housing need from either 41,379 or 41,361 to either 42,421 or 42,403 homes over the plan period. This broadly accords with the 42,260 homes necessary to accord with the City Deal.
The needs of those in institutional accommodation
3.25 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies a need for 3,909 people aged 75 or over to be accommodated in residential institutions over the period 2015-36. The 2014 based institutional population projections identify an increase of 2,060 such people within the GNLP area over the period 2015-38 comprising 1,088 in Broadland, 291 in Norwich and 681 in South Norfolk.
3.26 In the period 2015-18, a total of 234 bedspaces in older persons communal establishments were built, including 7 in Broadland, 225 in Norwich and 2 in South Norfolk. This leaves a residual need for 1,826 bedspaces in the period 2018-36, comprising 1,081 in Broadland, 57 in Norwich and 679 in South Norfolk.
3.27 The household projections which inform both the SHMA and the standard method do not include this population and the SHMA correctly recognises that in the absence of 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments the population who would have occupied these will remain in the dwelling stock rather than releasing them as assumed in the projections. ase its students from 15,000 to 18,000 in the next decade, an increase of 300 students per annum. 3.28 It is therefore apparent that there is a need for 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments in addition to the standard method and that in the absence of such provision the housing requirement will need to increase as fewer dwellings will be released to the market. The number of dwellings that would not be released in the absence of such residential institutions is 987 using the calculation identified in the PPG (63-016a) comprising 584 in Broadland, 33 in Norwich and 369 in South Norfolk.
3.29 It will therefore either be necessary to make provision for the 1,826 bedspaces or increase the housing requirement by 987 homes to meet the objectively assessed needs within the GNLP and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP. This would result in a need for either 43,408 or 43,390 homes or to 42,421 or 42,403 homes and 1,826 bedspaces.
The housing requirement
3.30 The Delivery Statement on page 37 indicates that the Draft Local Plan provides a sufficient supply of housing sites to exceed the identified housing need of 40,550 homes by 9%. However, as identified above, there is actually a need for at least 42,400 homes to accord with the City Deal, meet the minimum local housing need and to accommodate the growth plans of UEA as well as a need for an additional 1,800 bedspaces in communal establishments.
3.31 In order to provide sufficient flexibility to ensure that these minimum needs will be delivered, taking account of the non-delivery of sites, it has been found by numerous Inspectors that it is appropriate to set the housing requirement above the minimum housing need4 as the Draft Local Plan seeks to do.
3.32 In Greater Norwich, the housing trajectory of the Joint Core Strategy identified that there would be 23,637 housing completions in the period 2008-19. However, only 18,835 homes have been delivered which demonstrates that at least historically, the trajectory of Greater Norwich overestimates the developable supply by circa 25%. Assuming that the current trajectory is equally as accurate, it would be appropriate to set a housing requirement 25% in excess of the minimum need for circa 42,400 homes. This would produce a housing requirement for circa 53,000 homes. This is illustrative that there is a need for a significant contingency allowance in Greater Norwich to ensure that needs are actually met. It is therefore recommended that the proposed contingency of 9% is retained as a minimum but this should be significantly greater, which in addition to the minimum housing need for circa 42,400 homes produce a housing requirement for at least 46,216 homes.
Contingency to respond to changes
3.33 The Government has identified an intention to review the standard method in September 2020 and this will be required to be responded to in the Greater Norwich Local Plan to meet the minimum local housing needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008). This proposed review of the standard method means that the minimum housing needs may change from the 42,400 identified above. It may be that the minimum housing needs increase significantly and accordingly a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to ensure that the emerging GNLP will be able to respond to the identified minimum needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008).
3.34 Whilst it is not possible to identify the need which will arise from this review at present, it is considered that a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to significantly exceed the identified need for at least 42,400 homes and provide confidence that the minimum needs arising from the review will be able to be accommodated.
Employment Land Requirement
3.35 As set out in the GNLP, there is no quantitative need for additional employment sites. Nevertheless, the GNLP allocates an additional 40ha providing a total of 360ha of employment land allocations to meet the underlying demand and provide choice to the market.
3.36 Whilst these allocations will assist the economic growth of the area and represent positive planning, if a significant proportion of these are actually developed and occupied, they will be dependent upon greater numbers of incommuters from outside of the plan area. Accordingly, an appropriate monitoring framework should be put in place to ensure that a sufficient number of homes are provienvironmental harms of a greater dependency on long-distance commuting flows.
3.37 If the monitoring framework indicates that a greater number of jobs have been accommodated than the growth in the resident workforce such that the economy of the area becomes more dependent upon unsustainable long-distance incommuting flows, this should trigger an immediate review of the GNLP alongside a policy response with residential planning applications being considered more favourably until such time as the GNLP review is adopted to address the imbalance.
The approach to five-year land supply
3.38 Policy 1 proposes that the five-year land supply will be assessed across the plan area and that enough allocations are provided to demonstrate a five-year land supply at adoption. However, there is no evidence that this is the case as the GNLP is not supported by a housing trajectory contrary to paragraph 73 of the NPPF. Pegasus Group reserve the right to respond on this matter when the necessary evidence is made available.
Spatial Strategy
3.39 The Table at Policy 1 details the distribution of housing supply across the settlement hierarchy, including proposed new allocations as follows;
- Norwich urban area - 30,560 dwellings – approximately 70% of supply
- Main towns – 6,342 dwellings – approximately 14% of supply
- Key Service Centres – 3,417 dwellings – approximately 8% of supply
- Village clusters – 4,024 dwellings – approximately 9% of supply
3.40 Policies 7.1 to 7.5 provide further detail on the distribution of sites and the composition of existing and proposed allocations with regard to their size and brown or green field status.
3.41 Our clients raise concern over the proposed spatial strategy of the emerging GNLP owing to its over reliance on housing delivery in the Norwich urban area and the proposed discrepancy in terms of settlement hierarchy between the ded to accommodate the workforce to avoid the resultant quantum of housing allocated to Main Towns, Key Service Centres and Village Clusters.
3.42 While the Norwich urban area is a sustainable location for growth, reliance on this area for the delivery of approximately 70% of the housing growth of the GNLP up to 2038 places a requirement on existing infrastructure to accommodate an additional 30,560 dwellings in the plan period, it also requires an annual delivery rate within the area of 1,698 dwellings per annum over each of the next 18 years. This requires that the level of development in Norwich urban area alone is broadly consistent with that which has been achieved across the entire GNLP plan area since 2008. This does not appear to be realistic. If the necessary boost to housing supply is to be achieved this will require a greater range and choice of sites across all of the sustainable settlements within the plan area.
3.43 Moreover, reference to Policy 7.1 demonstrates that delivery within the Norwich Urban Area is predicated on two substantial brownfield regeneration areas, the Northern City Regeneration Area and the East Norwich Strategic Regeneration Area and several urban extensions of over 1,000 dwellings each.
3.44 Brownfield regeneration is costly and time consuming and often involves the bringing together of multiple delivery partners to achieve. The likelihood of the totality of development proposed through regeneration delivering in the plan period is therefore slim.
3.45 New strategic urban extensions can also be timely to deliver with the need for new strategic infrastructure in terms of highways and drainage to be delivered in advance of new homes.
3.46 The Councils have not produced evidence to substantiate the delivery trajectory of the brownfield regeneration sites or the urban extensions in the Norwich Urban Area. We reserve the right to comment further on this matter at the Regulation 19 consultation stage. Delay in delivery at either source of supply could prejudice the delivery of the housing requirement of the GNLP and therefore go to the soundness of the plan.
3.47 Additional certainty over the delivery of the housing requirement could be achieved by changing the emphasis of the spatial strategy by allocating more housing to the Main Towns, including Diss, and the Key Service Centres with anassociated reduction in the percentage to be delivered in Norwich urban area and the Village Clusters.
3.48 Diss in particular is identified in the Reg 18 GNLP as having capacity for additional employment development. Diss is a net importer of workers with 2011 Census data showing only 4,939 economically active people living in the town compared to the 5,623 people working there. In order to balance homes and jobs and provide for sustainable development it is necessary for more houses to come forward at Diss, especially given the re-allocation of 10.8ha of employment land at the Town in the Reg 18 GNLP.
3.49 Additionally, we have concerns over the fact that more dwellings are proposed in the spatial strategy across Village Clusters than are allocated at Key Service Centres, including a minimum of 1,200 dwellings through a South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Development Plan Document.
3.50 Without certainty over the supply of land to deliver such a quantum of development in South Norfolk Village Clusters the soundness of the spatial strategy is questionable. As a percentage of the overall new housing allocations in the Reg 18 GNLP the current spatial strategy delegates approximately 15% to a document outside of its control (1200/7,840). This is not considered to be a reasonable approach and prejudices the delivery of the emerging GNLP by 2038.
3.51 A Settlement Hierarchy approach to the distribution of development would look to allocate a higher percentage of housing to more sustainable locations with smaller amounts being allocated to lower order settlements in recognition that small developments at villages can help maintain service provision, provide vitality and help address local market and affordable housing needs.
3.52 In failing to provide an increased number of dwellings at Main Towns and Key Service Centres the Councils are also missing the opportunities presented by Pigeon to provide new community facilities that can support existing and proposed new development in sustainable locations for the plan period and beyond.
3.53 The preceding representations on the Spatial Strategy are all set in the context that the identified housing need does not even accord with the minimum set by national policy and does not take account of the needs of specific groups. It is therefore evident that the quantitative elements of the Spatial Strategy will need to be revised to ensure that housing needs can be met across the GNLP area. This should be achieved through directing more growth to the Main Towns and Key Service Centres to counterbalance the disproportionate levels of growth proposed within the Norwich urban area and Village Clusters.

Comment

Representation ID: 22366

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

3. POLICY 1 – THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
3.1 Policy 1 sets out the proposed strategy and includes the proposed housing requirement, the proposed employment land requirement, the approach to fiveyear land supply and the spatial strategy. These are addressed below.
3.2 Policy 1 also sets out the approach to supporting infrastructure and the proposed distribution of development which are addressed in greater detail in Policies 4 and 7.1 to 7.4 respectively. These matters are responded to under those Policies rather than in response to Policy 1.
Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplacebased house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplacebased house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91 respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 201938 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.
3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy. 3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.
Exceeding the minimum housing need
3.12 The standard method also only provides the minimum local housing need, and the PPG (2a-010) identifies that this should be exceeded including in situations where there is a growth strategy or where strategic infrastructure improvements may drive an increase in housing need or where previous assessments of need are significantly greater than the standard method. All three of these situations arise in Greater Norwich.
The City Deal
3.13 Paragraph 13 of the Draft Local Plan identifies that the Greater Norwich City Deal requirements will be met through the Draft Local Plan. As the Greater Norwich City Deal forms a growth strategy which has been agreed with Government, the Local Plan is required to meet the requirements of the City Deal as this forms part of national policy as set out in paragraph 6 of the NPPF.
3.14 The City Deal identifies that strategic infrastructure is needed including to deliver a step change in housing delivery. It sets a target for an average of 3,000 homes per annum in the period 2014-19 and for 37,000 homes to be delivered in the period 2008-26.
3.15 MHCLG Live Tables identify that only 10,715 houses were built in the period 2014-19 in addition to the equivalent of 581 homes provided as student and older persons bedspaces. This provides a total of 11,296 or an average of only 2,259 homes per annum. It is therefore apparent that the short-term target of the City Deal has not been met and that accordingly this shortfall of 3,704 homes should be addressed as soon as possible to achieve the objectives of the City Deal. No such short-term uplift to remedy this shortfall is made within the Draft Local Plan contrary to the requirements of national policy in the form of the City Deal.
3.16 In the period 2008-19, the MHCLG Live Tables identify an equivalent of 19,416 housing completions, which means that in order to provide 37,000 homes in the period 2008-26 it will be necessary to deliver the remaining 17,584 in the period 2019-26 or an average of 2,512 per annum. However, the housing need identified in emerging Policy 1 of 40,550 homes only provides for an average of 2,028 homes per annum. The housing need of the Draft Local Plan therefore again does not provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the housing needs identified in the City Deal.
3.17 It is therefore evident that the Draft Local Plan does not meet any of the targets of the City Deal and that it is accordingly not effective, not justified, not positively prepared and inconsistent with national policy.
Previous assessments of need
3.18 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies that there was a need to deliver 44,714 homes from 2015-36 to accord with the City Deal. In the period 2015-18, the equivalent of 6,680 homes were delivered and so there is a residual need for 38,034 homes from 2018-36, or 2,113 per annum.
3.19 Assuming that this need remained constant across the period 2036-38, there would be a need for 42,260 homes to accord with the City Deal based on the latest assessment of housing need. The Local Plan does not therefore provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the latest assessment of need or to accord with the City Deal.
The housing need of students
3.20 The standard method is informed by the 2014-based household projections which assume that the five-year migration trends which were experienced in the period 2009-14 will be maintained. The Higher Education Statistics Authority (HESA) identified that University of East Anglia (UEA) had 16,640 students and the Norwich University of the Arts had 1,485 students in 2009 providing a total of 18,125, but that this had increased to 18,140 by 2014 with 16,265 at UEA and 1,875 at the University of Arts. The 2014-based projections which inform the standard method therefore assumes that the student population will increase by 15 people over five years or 3 per annum.
3.21 Paragraph 45 of the Draft Local Plan however indicates that the Universities in Norwich are expected to expand. In particular, the University of East Anglia (UEA) has announced plans to incre3.22 The increased migration of 297 students per annum3, even assuming that the student population of the University of the Arts remains constant, are not taken into account in the projections.
3.23 These additional students at UEA will clearly have an impact on the housing need in Greater Norwich which is not taken into account within the standard method. Either these will generate a need for an additional 2,970 bedspaces which is equivalent to 1,042 houses or if these students are accommodated in the housing stock it will be necessary to deliver an additional 1,042 homes to accommodate them. It will be necessary to deliver such accommodation to meet the objectively assessed needs and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP.
3.24 Once the needs of these additional students are taken into account this would increase the minimum local housing need from either 41,379 or 41,361 to either 42,421 or 42,403 homes over the plan period. This broadly accords with the 42,260 homes necessary to accord with the City Deal.
The needs of those in institutional accommodation
3.25 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies a need for 3,909 people aged 75 or over to be accommodated in residential institutions over the period 2015-36. The 2014 based institutional population projections identify an increase of 2,060 such people within the GNLP area over the period 2015-38 comprising 1,088 in Broadland, 291 in Norwich and 681 in South Norfolk.
3.26 In the period 2015-18, a total of 234 bedspaces in older persons communal establishments were built, including 7 in Broadland, 225 in Norwich and 2 in South Norfolk. This leaves a residual need for 1,826 bedspaces in the period 2018-36, comprising 1,081 in Broadland, 57 in Norwich and 679 in South Norfolk.
3.27 The household projections which inform both the SHMA and the standard method do not include this population and the SHMA correctly recognises that in the absence of 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments the population who would have occupied these will remain in the dwelling stock rather than releasing them as assumed in the projections. ase its students from 15,000 to 18,000 in the next decade, an increase of 300 students per annum. 3.28 It is therefore apparent that there is a need for 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments in addition to the standard method and that in the absence of such provision the housing requirement will need to increase as fewer dwellings will be released to the market. The number of dwellings that would not be released in the absence of such residential institutions is 987 using the calculation identified in the PPG (63-016a) comprising 584 in Broadland, 33 in Norwich and 369 in South Norfolk.
3.29 It will therefore either be necessary to make provision for the 1,826 bedspaces or increase the housing requirement by 987 homes to meet the objectively assessed needs within the GNLP and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP. This would result in a need for either 43,408 or 43,390 homes or to 42,421 or 42,403 homes and 1,826 bedspaces.
The housing requirement
3.30 The Delivery Statement on page 37 indicates that the Draft Local Plan provides a sufficient supply of housing sites to exceed the identified housing need of 40,550 homes by 9%. However, as identified above, there is actually a need for at least 42,400 homes to accord with the City Deal, meet the minimum local housing need and to accommodate the growth plans of UEA as well as a need for an additional 1,800 bedspaces in communal establishments.
3.31 In order to provide sufficient flexibility to ensure that these minimum needs will be delivered, taking account of the non-delivery of sites, it has been found by numerous Inspectors that it is appropriate to set the housing requirement above the minimum housing need4 as the Draft Local Plan seeks to do.
3.32 In Greater Norwich, the housing trajectory of the Joint Core Strategy identified that there would be 23,637 housing completions in the period 2008-19. However, only 18,835 homes have been delivered which demonstrates that at least historically, the trajectory of Greater Norwich overestimates the developable supply by circa 25%. Assuming that the current trajectory is equally as accurate, it would be appropriate to set a housing requirement 25% in excess of the minimum need for circa 42,400 homes. This would produce a housing requirement for circa 53,000 homes. This is illustrative that there is a need for a significant contingency allowance in Greater Norwich to ensure that needs are actually met. It is therefore recommended that the proposed contingency of 9% is retained as a minimum but this should be significantly greater, which in addition to the minimum housing need for circa 42,400 homes produce a housing requirement for at least 46,216 homes.
Contingency to respond to changes
3.33 The Government has identified an intention to review the standard method in September 2020 and this will be required to be responded to in the Greater Norwich Local Plan to meet the minimum local housing needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008). This proposed review of the standard method means that the minimum housing needs may change from the 42,400 identified above. It may be that the minimum housing needs increase significantly and accordingly a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to ensure that the emerging GNLP will be able to respond to the identified minimum needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008).
3.34 Whilst it is not possible to identify the need which will arise from this review at present, it is considered that a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to significantly exceed the identified need for at least 42,400 homes and provide confidence that the minimum needs arising from the review will be able to be accommodated.
Employment Land Requirement
3.35 As set out in the GNLP, there is no quantitative need for additional employment sites. Nevertheless, the GNLP allocates an additional 40ha providing a total of 360ha of employment land allocations to meet the underlying demand and provide choice to the market.
3.36 Whilst these allocations will assist the economic growth of the area and represent positive planning, if a significant proportion of these are actually developed and occupied, they will be dependent upon greater numbers of incommuters from outside of the plan area. Accordingly, an appropriate monitoring framework should be put in place to ensure that a sufficient number of homes are provienvironmental harms of a greater dependency on long-distance commuting flows.
3.37 If the monitoring framework indicates that a greater number of jobs have been accommodated than the growth in the resident workforce such that the economy of the area becomes more dependent upon unsustainable long-distance incommuting flows, this should trigger an immediate review of the GNLP alongside a policy response with residential planning applications being considered more favourably until such time as the GNLP review is adopted to address the imbalance.
The approach to five-year land supply
3.38 Policy 1 proposes that the five-year land supply will be assessed across the plan area and that enough allocations are provided to demonstrate a five-year land supply at adoption. However, there is no evidence that this is the case as the GNLP is not supported by a housing trajectory contrary to paragraph 73 of the NPPF. Pegasus Group reserve the right to respond on this matter when the necessary evidence is made available.
Spatial Strategy
3.39 The Table at Policy 1 details the distribution of housing supply across the settlement hierarchy, including proposed new allocations as follows;
- Norwich urban area - 30,560 dwellings – approximately 70% of supply
- Main towns – 6,342 dwellings – approximately 14% of supply
- Key Service Centres – 3,417 dwellings – approximately 8% of supply
- Village clusters – 4,024 dwellings – approximately 9% of supply
3.40 Policies 7.1 to 7.5 provide further detail on the distribution of sites and the composition of existing and proposed allocations with regard to their size and brown or green field status.
3.41 Our clients raise concern over the proposed spatial strategy of the emerging GNLP owing to its over reliance on housing delivery in the Norwich urban area and the proposed discrepancy in terms of settlement hierarchy between the ded to accommodate the workforce to avoid the resultant quantum of housing allocated to Main Towns, Key Service Centres and Village Clusters.
3.42 While the Norwich urban area is a sustainable location for growth, reliance on this area for the delivery of approximately 70% of the housing growth of the GNLP up to 2038 places a requirement on existing infrastructure to accommodate an additional 30,560 dwellings in the plan period, it also requires an annual delivery rate within the area of 1,698 dwellings per annum over each of the next 18 years. This requires that the level of development in Norwich urban area alone is broadly consistent with that which has been achieved across the entire GNLP plan area since 2008. This does not appear to be realistic. If the necessary boost to housing supply is to be achieved this will require a greater range and choice of sites across all of the sustainable settlements within the plan area.
3.43 Moreover, reference to Policy 7.1 demonstrates that delivery within the Norwich Urban Area is predicated on two substantial brownfield regeneration areas, the Northern City Regeneration Area and the East Norwich Strategic Regeneration Area and several urban extensions of over 1,000 dwellings each.
3.44 Brownfield regeneration is costly and time consuming and often involves the bringing together of multiple delivery partners to achieve. The likelihood of the totality of development proposed through regeneration delivering in the plan period is therefore slim.
3.45 New strategic urban extensions can also be timely to deliver with the need for new strategic infrastructure in terms of highways and drainage to be delivered in advance of new homes.
3.46 The Councils have not produced evidence to substantiate the delivery trajectory of the brownfield regeneration sites or the urban extensions in the Norwich Urban Area. We reserve the right to comment further on this matter at the Regulation 19 consultation stage. Delay in delivery at either source of supply could prejudice the delivery of the housing requirement of the GNLP and therefore go to the soundness of the plan.
3.47 Additional certainty over the delivery of the housing requirement could be achieved by changing the emphasis of the spatial strategy by allocating more housing to the Main Towns, including Diss, and the Key Service Centres with anassociated reduction in the percentage to be delivered in Norwich urban area and the Village Clusters.
3.48 Diss in particular is identified in the Reg 18 GNLP as having capacity for additional employment development. Diss is a net importer of workers with 2011 Census data showing only 4,939 economically active people living in the town compared to the 5,623 people working there. In order to balance homes and jobs and provide for sustainable development it is necessary for more houses to come forward at Diss, especially given the re-allocation of 10.8ha of employment land at the Town in the Reg 18 GNLP.
3.49 Additionally, we have concerns over the fact that more dwellings are proposed in the spatial strategy across Village Clusters than are allocated at Key Service Centres, including a minimum of 1,200 dwellings through a South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Development Plan Document.
3.50 Without certainty over the supply of land to deliver such a quantum of development in South Norfolk Village Clusters the soundness of the spatial strategy is questionable. As a percentage of the overall new housing allocations in the Reg 18 GNLP the current spatial strategy delegates approximately 15% to a document outside of its control (1200/7,840). This is not considered to be a reasonable approach and prejudices the delivery of the emerging GNLP by 2038.
3.51 A Settlement Hierarchy approach to the distribution of development would look to allocate a higher percentage of housing to more sustainable locations with smaller amounts being allocated to lower order settlements in recognition that small developments at villages can help maintain service provision, provide vitality and help address local market and affordable housing needs.
3.52 In failing to provide an increased number of dwellings at Main Towns and Key Service Centres the Councils are also missing the opportunities presented by Pigeon to provide new community facilities that can support existing and proposed new development in sustainable locations for the plan period and beyond.
3.53 The preceding representations on the Spatial Strategy are all set in the context that the identified housing need does not even accord with the minimum set by national policy and does not take account of the needs of specific groups. It is therefore evident that the quantitative elements of the Spatial Strategy will need to be revised to ensure that housing needs can be met across the GNLP area. This should be achieved through directing more growth to the Main Towns and Key Service Centres to counterbalance the disproportionate levels of growth proposed within the Norwich urban area and Village Clusters.

Comment

Representation ID: 22367

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

3. POLICY 1 – THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
3.1 Policy 1 sets out the proposed strategy and includes the proposed housing requirement, the proposed employment land requirement, the approach to fiveyear land supply and the spatial strategy. These are addressed below.
3.2 Policy 1 also sets out the approach to supporting infrastructure and the proposed distribution of development which are addressed in greater detail in Policies 4 and 7.1 to 7.4 respectively. These matters are responded to under those Policies rather than in response to Policy 1.
Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplacebased house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplacebased house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91 respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 201938 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.
3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy. 3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.
Exceeding the minimum housing need
3.12 The standard method also only provides the minimum local housing need, and the PPG (2a-010) identifies that this should be exceeded including in situations where there is a growth strategy or where strategic infrastructure improvements may drive an increase in housing need or where previous assessments of need are significantly greater than the standard method. All three of these situations arise in Greater Norwich.
The City Deal
3.13 Paragraph 13 of the Draft Local Plan identifies that the Greater Norwich City Deal requirements will be met through the Draft Local Plan. As the Greater Norwich City Deal forms a growth strategy which has been agreed with Government, the Local Plan is required to meet the requirements of the City Deal as this forms part of national policy as set out in paragraph 6 of the NPPF.
3.14 The City Deal identifies that strategic infrastructure is needed including to deliver a step change in housing delivery. It sets a target for an average of 3,000 homes per annum in the period 2014-19 and for 37,000 homes to be delivered in the period 2008-26.
3.15 MHCLG Live Tables identify that only 10,715 houses were built in the period 2014-19 in addition to the equivalent of 581 homes provided as student and older persons bedspaces. This provides a total of 11,296 or an average of only 2,259 homes per annum. It is therefore apparent that the short-term target of the City Deal has not been met and that accordingly this shortfall of 3,704 homes should be addressed as soon as possible to achieve the objectives of the City Deal. No such short-term uplift to remedy this shortfall is made within the Draft Local Plan contrary to the requirements of national policy in the form of the City Deal.
3.16 In the period 2008-19, the MHCLG Live Tables identify an equivalent of 19,416 housing completions, which means that in order to provide 37,000 homes in the period 2008-26 it will be necessary to deliver the remaining 17,584 in the period 2019-26 or an average of 2,512 per annum. However, the housing need identified in emerging Policy 1 of 40,550 homes only provides for an average of 2,028 homes per annum. The housing need of the Draft Local Plan therefore again does not provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the housing needs identified in the City Deal.
3.17 It is therefore evident that the Draft Local Plan does not meet any of the targets of the City Deal and that it is accordingly not effective, not justified, not positively prepared and inconsistent with national policy.
Previous assessments of need
3.18 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies that there was a need to deliver 44,714 homes from 2015-36 to accord with the City Deal. In the period 2015-18, the equivalent of 6,680 homes were delivered and so there is a residual need for 38,034 homes from 2018-36, or 2,113 per annum.
3.19 Assuming that this need remained constant across the period 2036-38, there would be a need for 42,260 homes to accord with the City Deal based on the latest assessment of housing need. The Local Plan does not therefore provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the latest assessment of need or to accord with the City Deal.
The housing need of students
3.20 The standard method is informed by the 2014-based household projections which assume that the five-year migration trends which were experienced in the period 2009-14 will be maintained. The Higher Education Statistics Authority (HESA) identified that University of East Anglia (UEA) had 16,640 students and the Norwich University of the Arts had 1,485 students in 2009 providing a total of 18,125, but that this had increased to 18,140 by 2014 with 16,265 at UEA and 1,875 at the University of Arts. The 2014-based projections which inform the standard method therefore assumes that the student population will increase by 15 people over five years or 3 per annum.
3.21 Paragraph 45 of the Draft Local Plan however indicates that the Universities in Norwich are expected to expand. In particular, the University of East Anglia (UEA) has announced plans to incre3.22 The increased migration of 297 students per annum3, even assuming that the student population of the University of the Arts remains constant, are not taken into account in the projections.
3.23 These additional students at UEA will clearly have an impact on the housing need in Greater Norwich which is not taken into account within the standard method. Either these will generate a need for an additional 2,970 bedspaces which is equivalent to 1,042 houses or if these students are accommodated in the housing stock it will be necessary to deliver an additional 1,042 homes to accommodate them. It will be necessary to deliver such accommodation to meet the objectively assessed needs and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP.
3.24 Once the needs of these additional students are taken into account this would increase the minimum local housing need from either 41,379 or 41,361 to either 42,421 or 42,403 homes over the plan period. This broadly accords with the 42,260 homes necessary to accord with the City Deal.
The needs of those in institutional accommodation
3.25 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies a need for 3,909 people aged 75 or over to be accommodated in residential institutions over the period 2015-36. The 2014 based institutional population projections identify an increase of 2,060 such people within the GNLP area over the period 2015-38 comprising 1,088 in Broadland, 291 in Norwich and 681 in South Norfolk.
3.26 In the period 2015-18, a total of 234 bedspaces in older persons communal establishments were built, including 7 in Broadland, 225 in Norwich and 2 in South Norfolk. This leaves a residual need for 1,826 bedspaces in the period 2018-36, comprising 1,081 in Broadland, 57 in Norwich and 679 in South Norfolk.
3.27 The household projections which inform both the SHMA and the standard method do not include this population and the SHMA correctly recognises that in the absence of 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments the population who would have occupied these will remain in the dwelling stock rather than releasing them as assumed in the projections. ase its students from 15,000 to 18,000 in the next decade, an increase of 300 students per annum. 3.28 It is therefore apparent that there is a need for 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments in addition to the standard method and that in the absence of such provision the housing requirement will need to increase as fewer dwellings will be released to the market. The number of dwellings that would not be released in the absence of such residential institutions is 987 using the calculation identified in the PPG (63-016a) comprising 584 in Broadland, 33 in Norwich and 369 in South Norfolk.
3.29 It will therefore either be necessary to make provision for the 1,826 bedspaces or increase the housing requirement by 987 homes to meet the objectively assessed needs within the GNLP and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP. This would result in a need for either 43,408 or 43,390 homes or to 42,421 or 42,403 homes and 1,826 bedspaces.
The housing requirement
3.30 The Delivery Statement on page 37 indicates that the Draft Local Plan provides a sufficient supply of housing sites to exceed the identified housing need of 40,550 homes by 9%. However, as identified above, there is actually a need for at least 42,400 homes to accord with the City Deal, meet the minimum local housing need and to accommodate the growth plans of UEA as well as a need for an additional 1,800 bedspaces in communal establishments.
3.31 In order to provide sufficient flexibility to ensure that these minimum needs will be delivered, taking account of the non-delivery of sites, it has been found by numerous Inspectors that it is appropriate to set the housing requirement above the minimum housing need4 as the Draft Local Plan seeks to do.
3.32 In Greater Norwich, the housing trajectory of the Joint Core Strategy identified that there would be 23,637 housing completions in the period 2008-19. However, only 18,835 homes have been delivered which demonstrates that at least historically, the trajectory of Greater Norwich overestimates the developable supply by circa 25%. Assuming that the current trajectory is equally as accurate, it would be appropriate to set a housing requirement 25% in excess of the minimum need for circa 42,400 homes. This would produce a housing requirement for circa 53,000 homes. This is illustrative that there is a need for a significant contingency allowance in Greater Norwich to ensure that needs are actually met. It is therefore recommended that the proposed contingency of 9% is retained as a minimum but this should be significantly greater, which in addition to the minimum housing need for circa 42,400 homes produce a housing requirement for at least 46,216 homes.
Contingency to respond to changes
3.33 The Government has identified an intention to review the standard method in September 2020 and this will be required to be responded to in the Greater Norwich Local Plan to meet the minimum local housing needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008). This proposed review of the standard method means that the minimum housing needs may change from the 42,400 identified above. It may be that the minimum housing needs increase significantly and accordingly a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to ensure that the emerging GNLP will be able to respond to the identified minimum needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008).
3.34 Whilst it is not possible to identify the need which will arise from this review at present, it is considered that a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to significantly exceed the identified need for at least 42,400 homes and provide confidence that the minimum needs arising from the review will be able to be accommodated.
Employment Land Requirement
3.35 As set out in the GNLP, there is no quantitative need for additional employment sites. Nevertheless, the GNLP allocates an additional 40ha providing a total of 360ha of employment land allocations to meet the underlying demand and provide choice to the market.
3.36 Whilst these allocations will assist the economic growth of the area and represent positive planning, if a significant proportion of these are actually developed and occupied, they will be dependent upon greater numbers of incommuters from outside of the plan area. Accordingly, an appropriate monitoring framework should be put in place to ensure that a sufficient number of homes are provienvironmental harms of a greater dependency on long-distance commuting flows.
3.37 If the monitoring framework indicates that a greater number of jobs have been accommodated than the growth in the resident workforce such that the economy of the area becomes more dependent upon unsustainable long-distance incommuting flows, this should trigger an immediate review of the GNLP alongside a policy response with residential planning applications being considered more favourably until such time as the GNLP review is adopted to address the imbalance.
The approach to five-year land supply
3.38 Policy 1 proposes that the five-year land supply will be assessed across the plan area and that enough allocations are provided to demonstrate a five-year land supply at adoption. However, there is no evidence that this is the case as the GNLP is not supported by a housing trajectory contrary to paragraph 73 of the NPPF. Pegasus Group reserve the right to respond on this matter when the necessary evidence is made available.
Spatial Strategy
3.39 The Table at Policy 1 details the distribution of housing supply across the settlement hierarchy, including proposed new allocations as follows;
- Norwich urban area - 30,560 dwellings – approximately 70% of supply
- Main towns – 6,342 dwellings – approximately 14% of supply
- Key Service Centres – 3,417 dwellings – approximately 8% of supply
- Village clusters – 4,024 dwellings – approximately 9% of supply
3.40 Policies 7.1 to 7.5 provide further detail on the distribution of sites and the composition of existing and proposed allocations with regard to their size and brown or green field status.
3.41 Our clients raise concern over the proposed spatial strategy of the emerging GNLP owing to its over reliance on housing delivery in the Norwich urban area and the proposed discrepancy in terms of settlement hierarchy between the ded to accommodate the workforce to avoid the resultant quantum of housing allocated to Main Towns, Key Service Centres and Village Clusters.
3.42 While the Norwich urban area is a sustainable location for growth, reliance on this area for the delivery of approximately 70% of the housing growth of the GNLP up to 2038 places a requirement on existing infrastructure to accommodate an additional 30,560 dwellings in the plan period, it also requires an annual delivery rate within the area of 1,698 dwellings per annum over each of the next 18 years. This requires that the level of development in Norwich urban area alone is broadly consistent with that which has been achieved across the entire GNLP plan area since 2008. This does not appear to be realistic. If the necessary boost to housing supply is to be achieved this will require a greater range and choice of sites across all of the sustainable settlements within the plan area.
3.43 Moreover, reference to Policy 7.1 demonstrates that delivery within the Norwich Urban Area is predicated on two substantial brownfield regeneration areas, the Northern City Regeneration Area and the East Norwich Strategic Regeneration Area and several urban extensions of over 1,000 dwellings each.
3.44 Brownfield regeneration is costly and time consuming and often involves the bringing together of multiple delivery partners to achieve. The likelihood of the totality of development proposed through regeneration delivering in the plan period is therefore slim.
3.45 New strategic urban extensions can also be timely to deliver with the need for new strategic infrastructure in terms of highways and drainage to be delivered in advance of new homes.
3.46 The Councils have not produced evidence to substantiate the delivery trajectory of the brownfield regeneration sites or the urban extensions in the Norwich Urban Area. We reserve the right to comment further on this matter at the Regulation 19 consultation stage. Delay in delivery at either source of supply could prejudice the delivery of the housing requirement of the GNLP and therefore go to the soundness of the plan.
3.47 Additional certainty over the delivery of the housing requirement could be achieved by changing the emphasis of the spatial strategy by allocating more housing to the Main Towns, including Diss, and the Key Service Centres with anassociated reduction in the percentage to be delivered in Norwich urban area and the Village Clusters.
3.48 Diss in particular is identified in the Reg 18 GNLP as having capacity for additional employment development. Diss is a net importer of workers with 2011 Census data showing only 4,939 economically active people living in the town compared to the 5,623 people working there. In order to balance homes and jobs and provide for sustainable development it is necessary for more houses to come forward at Diss, especially given the re-allocation of 10.8ha of employment land at the Town in the Reg 18 GNLP.
3.49 Additionally, we have concerns over the fact that more dwellings are proposed in the spatial strategy across Village Clusters than are allocated at Key Service Centres, including a minimum of 1,200 dwellings through a South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Development Plan Document.
3.50 Without certainty over the supply of land to deliver such a quantum of development in South Norfolk Village Clusters the soundness of the spatial strategy is questionable. As a percentage of the overall new housing allocations in the Reg 18 GNLP the current spatial strategy delegates approximately 15% to a document outside of its control (1200/7,840). This is not considered to be a reasonable approach and prejudices the delivery of the emerging GNLP by 2038.
3.51 A Settlement Hierarchy approach to the distribution of development would look to allocate a higher percentage of housing to more sustainable locations with smaller amounts being allocated to lower order settlements in recognition that small developments at villages can help maintain service provision, provide vitality and help address local market and affordable housing needs.
3.52 In failing to provide an increased number of dwellings at Main Towns and Key Service Centres the Councils are also missing the opportunities presented by Pigeon to provide new community facilities that can support existing and proposed new development in sustainable locations for the plan period and beyond.
3.53 The preceding representations on the Spatial Strategy are all set in the context that the identified housing need does not even accord with the minimum set by national policy and does not take account of the needs of specific groups. It is therefore evident that the quantitative elements of the Spatial Strategy will need to be revised to ensure that housing needs can be met across the GNLP area. This should be achieved through directing more growth to the Main Towns and Key Service Centres to counterbalance the disproportionate levels of growth proposed within the Norwich urban area and Village Clusters.

Comment

Representation ID: 22368

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

3. POLICY 1 – THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
3.1 Policy 1 sets out the proposed strategy and includes the proposed housing requirement, the proposed employment land requirement, the approach to fiveyear land supply and the spatial strategy. These are addressed below.
3.2 Policy 1 also sets out the approach to supporting infrastructure and the proposed distribution of development which are addressed in greater detail in Policies 4 and 7.1 to 7.4 respectively. These matters are responded to under those Policies rather than in response to Policy 1.
Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplacebased house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplacebased house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91 respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 201938 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.
3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy. 3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.
Exceeding the minimum housing need
3.12 The standard method also only provides the minimum local housing need, and the PPG (2a-010) identifies that this should be exceeded including in situations where there is a growth strategy or where strategic infrastructure improvements may drive an increase in housing need or where previous assessments of need are significantly greater than the standard method. All three of these situations arise in Greater Norwich.
The City Deal
3.13 Paragraph 13 of the Draft Local Plan identifies that the Greater Norwich City Deal requirements will be met through the Draft Local Plan. As the Greater Norwich City Deal forms a growth strategy which has been agreed with Government, the Local Plan is required to meet the requirements of the City Deal as this forms part of national policy as set out in paragraph 6 of the NPPF.
3.14 The City Deal identifies that strategic infrastructure is needed including to deliver a step change in housing delivery. It sets a target for an average of 3,000 homes per annum in the period 2014-19 and for 37,000 homes to be delivered in the period 2008-26.
3.15 MHCLG Live Tables identify that only 10,715 houses were built in the period 2014-19 in addition to the equivalent of 581 homes provided as student and older persons bedspaces. This provides a total of 11,296 or an average of only 2,259 homes per annum. It is therefore apparent that the short-term target of the City Deal has not been met and that accordingly this shortfall of 3,704 homes should be addressed as soon as possible to achieve the objectives of the City Deal. No such short-term uplift to remedy this shortfall is made within the Draft Local Plan contrary to the requirements of national policy in the form of the City Deal.
3.16 In the period 2008-19, the MHCLG Live Tables identify an equivalent of 19,416 housing completions, which means that in order to provide 37,000 homes in the period 2008-26 it will be necessary to deliver the remaining 17,584 in the period 2019-26 or an average of 2,512 per annum. However, the housing need identified in emerging Policy 1 of 40,550 homes only provides for an average of 2,028 homes per annum. The housing need of the Draft Local Plan therefore again does not provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the housing needs identified in the City Deal.
3.17 It is therefore evident that the Draft Local Plan does not meet any of the targets of the City Deal and that it is accordingly not effective, not justified, not positively prepared and inconsistent with national policy.
Previous assessments of need
3.18 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies that there was a need to deliver 44,714 homes from 2015-36 to accord with the City Deal. In the period 2015-18, the equivalent of 6,680 homes were delivered and so there is a residual need for 38,034 homes from 2018-36, or 2,113 per annum.
3.19 Assuming that this need remained constant across the period 2036-38, there would be a need for 42,260 homes to accord with the City Deal based on the latest assessment of housing need. The Local Plan does not therefore provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the latest assessment of need or to accord with the City Deal.
The housing need of students
3.20 The standard method is informed by the 2014-based household projections which assume that the five-year migration trends which were experienced in the period 2009-14 will be maintained. The Higher Education Statistics Authority (HESA) identified that University of East Anglia (UEA) had 16,640 students and the Norwich University of the Arts had 1,485 students in 2009 providing a total of 18,125, but that this had increased to 18,140 by 2014 with 16,265 at UEA and 1,875 at the University of Arts. The 2014-based projections which inform the standard method therefore assumes that the student population will increase by 15 people over five years or 3 per annum.
3.21 Paragraph 45 of the Draft Local Plan however indicates that the Universities in Norwich are expected to expand. In particular, the University of East Anglia (UEA) has announced plans to incre3.22 The increased migration of 297 students per annum3, even assuming that the student population of the University of the Arts remains constant, are not taken into account in the projections.
3.23 These additional students at UEA will clearly have an impact on the housing need in Greater Norwich which is not taken into account within the standard method. Either these will generate a need for an additional 2,970 bedspaces which is equivalent to 1,042 houses or if these students are accommodated in the housing stock it will be necessary to deliver an additional 1,042 homes to accommodate them. It will be necessary to deliver such accommodation to meet the objectively assessed needs and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP.
3.24 Once the needs of these additional students are taken into account this would increase the minimum local housing need from either 41,379 or 41,361 to either 42,421 or 42,403 homes over the plan period. This broadly accords with the 42,260 homes necessary to accord with the City Deal.
The needs of those in institutional accommodation
3.25 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies a need for 3,909 people aged 75 or over to be accommodated in residential institutions over the period 2015-36. The 2014 based institutional population projections identify an increase of 2,060 such people within the GNLP area over the period 2015-38 comprising 1,088 in Broadland, 291 in Norwich and 681 in South Norfolk.
3.26 In the period 2015-18, a total of 234 bedspaces in older persons communal establishments were built, including 7 in Broadland, 225 in Norwich and 2 in South Norfolk. This leaves a residual need for 1,826 bedspaces in the period 2018-36, comprising 1,081 in Broadland, 57 in Norwich and 679 in South Norfolk.
3.27 The household projections which inform both the SHMA and the standard method do not include this population and the SHMA correctly recognises that in the absence of 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments the population who would have occupied these will remain in the dwelling stock rather than releasing them as assumed in the projections. ase its students from 15,000 to 18,000 in the next decade, an increase of 300 students per annum. 3.28 It is therefore apparent that there is a need for 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments in addition to the standard method and that in the absence of such provision the housing requirement will need to increase as fewer dwellings will be released to the market. The number of dwellings that would not be released in the absence of such residential institutions is 987 using the calculation identified in the PPG (63-016a) comprising 584 in Broadland, 33 in Norwich and 369 in South Norfolk.
3.29 It will therefore either be necessary to make provision for the 1,826 bedspaces or increase the housing requirement by 987 homes to meet the objectively assessed needs within the GNLP and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP. This would result in a need for either 43,408 or 43,390 homes or to 42,421 or 42,403 homes and 1,826 bedspaces.
The housing requirement
3.30 The Delivery Statement on page 37 indicates that the Draft Local Plan provides a sufficient supply of housing sites to exceed the identified housing need of 40,550 homes by 9%. However, as identified above, there is actually a need for at least 42,400 homes to accord with the City Deal, meet the minimum local housing need and to accommodate the growth plans of UEA as well as a need for an additional 1,800 bedspaces in communal establishments.
3.31 In order to provide sufficient flexibility to ensure that these minimum needs will be delivered, taking account of the non-delivery of sites, it has been found by numerous Inspectors that it is appropriate to set the housing requirement above the minimum housing need4 as the Draft Local Plan seeks to do.
3.32 In Greater Norwich, the housing trajectory of the Joint Core Strategy identified that there would be 23,637 housing completions in the period 2008-19. However, only 18,835 homes have been delivered which demonstrates that at least historically, the trajectory of Greater Norwich overestimates the developable supply by circa 25%. Assuming that the current trajectory is equally as accurate, it would be appropriate to set a housing requirement 25% in excess of the minimum need for circa 42,400 homes. This would produce a housing requirement for circa 53,000 homes. This is illustrative that there is a need for a significant contingency allowance in Greater Norwich to ensure that needs are actually met. It is therefore recommended that the proposed contingency of 9% is retained as a minimum but this should be significantly greater, which in addition to the minimum housing need for circa 42,400 homes produce a housing requirement for at least 46,216 homes.
Contingency to respond to changes
3.33 The Government has identified an intention to review the standard method in September 2020 and this will be required to be responded to in the Greater Norwich Local Plan to meet the minimum local housing needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008). This proposed review of the standard method means that the minimum housing needs may change from the 42,400 identified above. It may be that the minimum housing needs increase significantly and accordingly a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to ensure that the emerging GNLP will be able to respond to the identified minimum needs at the point of submission as required by the PPG (2a-008).
3.34 Whilst it is not possible to identify the need which will arise from this review at present, it is considered that a sufficient developable supply (including the required contingency set out above) should be planned for to significantly exceed the identified need for at least 42,400 homes and provide confidence that the minimum needs arising from the review will be able to be accommodated.
Employment Land Requirement
3.35 As set out in the GNLP, there is no quantitative need for additional employment sites. Nevertheless, the GNLP allocates an additional 40ha providing a total of 360ha of employment land allocations to meet the underlying demand and provide choice to the market.
3.36 Whilst these allocations will assist the economic growth of the area and represent positive planning, if a significant proportion of these are actually developed and occupied, they will be dependent upon greater numbers of incommuters from outside of the plan area. Accordingly, an appropriate monitoring framework should be put in place to ensure that a sufficient number of homes are provienvironmental harms of a greater dependency on long-distance commuting flows.
3.37 If the monitoring framework indicates that a greater number of jobs have been accommodated than the growth in the resident workforce such that the economy of the area becomes more dependent upon unsustainable long-distance incommuting flows, this should trigger an immediate review of the GNLP alongside a policy response with residential planning applications being considered more favourably until such time as the GNLP review is adopted to address the imbalance.
The approach to five-year land supply
3.38 Policy 1 proposes that the five-year land supply will be assessed across the plan area and that enough allocations are provided to demonstrate a five-year land supply at adoption. However, there is no evidence that this is the case as the GNLP is not supported by a housing trajectory contrary to paragraph 73 of the NPPF. Pegasus Group reserve the right to respond on this matter when the necessary evidence is made available.
Spatial Strategy
3.39 The Table at Policy 1 details the distribution of housing supply across the settlement hierarchy, including proposed new allocations as follows;
- Norwich urban area - 30,560 dwellings – approximately 70% of supply
- Main towns – 6,342 dwellings – approximately 14% of supply
- Key Service Centres – 3,417 dwellings – approximately 8% of supply
- Village clusters – 4,024 dwellings – approximately 9% of supply
3.40 Policies 7.1 to 7.5 provide further detail on the distribution of sites and the composition of existing and proposed allocations with regard to their size and brown or green field status.
3.41 Our clients raise concern over the proposed spatial strategy of the emerging GNLP owing to its over reliance on housing delivery in the Norwich urban area and the proposed discrepancy in terms of settlement hierarchy between the ded to accommodate the workforce to avoid the resultant quantum of housing allocated to Main Towns, Key Service Centres and Village Clusters.
3.42 While the Norwich urban area is a sustainable location for growth, reliance on this area for the delivery of approximately 70% of the housing growth of the GNLP up to 2038 places a requirement on existing infrastructure to accommodate an additional 30,560 dwellings in the plan period, it also requires an annual delivery rate within the area of 1,698 dwellings per annum over each of the next 18 years. This requires that the level of development in Norwich urban area alone is broadly consistent with that which has been achieved across the entire GNLP plan area since 2008. This does not appear to be realistic. If the necessary boost to housing supply is to be achieved this will require a greater range and choice of sites across all of the sustainable settlements within the plan area.
3.43 Moreover, reference to Policy 7.1 demonstrates that delivery within the Norwich Urban Area is predicated on two substantial brownfield regeneration areas, the Northern City Regeneration Area and the East Norwich Strategic Regeneration Area and several urban extensions of over 1,000 dwellings each.
3.44 Brownfield regeneration is costly and time consuming and often involves the bringing together of multiple delivery partners to achieve. The likelihood of the totality of development proposed through regeneration delivering in the plan period is therefore slim.
3.45 New strategic urban extensions can also be timely to deliver with the need for new strategic infrastructure in terms of highways and drainage to be delivered in advance of new homes.
3.46 The Councils have not produced evidence to substantiate the delivery trajectory of the brownfield regeneration sites or the urban extensions in the Norwich Urban Area. We reserve the right to comment further on this matter at the Regulation 19 consultation stage. Delay in delivery at either source of supply could prejudice the delivery of the housing requirement of the GNLP and therefore go to the soundness of the plan.
3.47 Additional certainty over the delivery of the housing requirement could be achieved by changing the emphasis of the spatial strategy by allocating more housing to the Main Towns, including Diss, and the Key Service Centres with anassociated reduction in the percentage to be delivered in Norwich urban area and the Village Clusters.
3.48 Diss in particular is identified in the Reg 18 GNLP as having capacity for additional employment development. Diss is a net importer of workers with 2011 Census data showing only 4,939 economically active people living in the town compared to the 5,623 people working there. In order to balance homes and jobs and provide for sustainable development it is necessary for more houses to come forward at Diss, especially given the re-allocation of 10.8ha of employment land at the Town in the Reg 18 GNLP.
3.49 Additionally, we have concerns over the fact that more dwellings are proposed in the spatial strategy across Village Clusters than are allocated at Key Service Centres, including a minimum of 1,200 dwellings through a South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Development Plan Document.
3.50 Without certainty over the supply of land to deliver such a quantum of development in South Norfolk Village Clusters the soundness of the spatial strategy is questionable. As a percentage of the overall new housing allocations in the Reg 18 GNLP the current spatial strategy delegates approximately 15% to a document outside of its control (1200/7,840). This is not considered to be a reasonable approach and prejudices the delivery of the emerging GNLP by 2038.
3.51 A Settlement Hierarchy approach to the distribution of development would look to allocate a higher percentage of housing to more sustainable locations with smaller amounts being allocated to lower order settlements in recognition that small developments at villages can help maintain service provision, provide vitality and help address local market and affordable housing needs.
3.52 In failing to provide an increased number of dwellings at Main Towns and Key Service Centres the Councils are also missing the opportunities presented by Pigeon to provide new community facilities that can support existing and proposed new development in sustainable locations for the plan period and beyond.
3.53 The preceding representations on the Spatial Strategy are all set in the context that the identified housing need does not even accord with the minimum set by national policy and does not take account of the needs of specific groups. It is therefore evident that the quantitative elements of the Spatial Strategy will need to be revised to ensure that housing needs can be met across the GNLP area. This should be achieved through directing more growth to the Main Towns and Key Service Centres to counterbalance the disproportionate levels of growth proposed within the Norwich urban area and Village Clusters.