Draft Greater Norwich Local Plan – Part 1 The Strategy

Comment

Representation ID: 22152

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

2. VISION AND OBJECTIVES
2.1 The Vision for Greater Norwich identifies that the GNLP will stimulate the creation of a strong, enterprising, productive and broad-based economy including through the provision of smaller scale employment sites within the market towns and villages to provide access to jobs for all. This accords with the economic objective of sustainable development which is to be welcomed. It will require that an appropriate distribution of jobs and homes is achieved through the plan.
2.2 The Vision aims to ensure that people of all ages will have good access to services and facilities including schools, health care, and community facilities which will reduce the need to travel. This accords with the economic, social and environmental objectives of sustainable development which is supported. It will require that housing which supports the needs of all age groups is delivered in locations which have good access to community facilities particularly with good access to sustainable transport connections.
2.3 The Vision seeks to ensure that a range of types, tenures and sizes of homes will have been built to respond to the needs of the area, including those of the older population and those in affordable need. Again, this accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is supported.
2.4 The Vision then indicates that the need to travel will have reduced including through a better alignment of the distribution of homes and facilities, an increase in home working, as well as an increase in the use of sustainable modes of transport. This will require that new housing is provided at locations where there is a shortage of workers and/or that housing is provided in locations with sustainable transport connections to major employment hubs.
2.5 The Vision also identifies that educational and healthcare facilities will have been expanded or new facilities provided which again accords with the social objective of sustainable development and is to be welcomed.

Comment

Representation ID: 22153

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

3. POLICY 1 – THE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY
3.1 Policy 1 sets out the proposed strategy and includes the proposed housing requirement, the proposed employment land requirement, the approach to five-year land supply and the spatial strategy. These are addressed below.
3.2 Policy 1 also sets out the approach to supporting infrastructure and the proposed distribution of development which are addressed in greater detail in Policies 4 and 7.1 to 7.4 respectively. These matters are responded to under those Policies rather than in response to Policy 1.

Comment

Representation ID: 22154

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91 respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 2019-38 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.
3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy.
3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.
Exceeding the minimum housing need
3.12 The standard method also only provides the minimum local housing need, and the PPG (2a-010) identifies that this should be exceeded including in situations where there is a growth strategy or where strategic infrastructure improvements may drive an increase in housing need or where previous assessments of need are significantly greater than the standard method. All three of these situations arise in Greater Norwich.
The City Deal
3.13 Paragraph 13 of the Draft Local Plan identifies that the Greater Norwich City Deal requirements will be met through the Draft Local Plan. As the Greater Norwich City Deal forms a growth strategy which has been agreed with Government, the Local Plan is required to meet the requirements of the City Deal as this forms part of national policy as set out in paragraph 6 of the NPPF.
3.14 The City Deal identifies that strategic infrastructure is needed including to deliver a step change in housing delivery. It sets a target for an average of 3,000 homes per annum in the period 2014-19 and for3.15 MHCLG Live Tables identify that only 10,715 houses were built in the period 2014-19 in addition to the equivalent of 581 homes provided as student and older persons bedspaces. This provides a total of 11,296 or an average of only 2,259 homes per annum. It is therefore apparent that the short-term target of the City Deal has not been met and that accordingly this shortfall of 3,704 homes should be addressed as soon as possible to achieve the objectives of the City Deal. No such short-term uplift to remedy this shortfall is made within the Draft Local Plan contrary to the requirements of national policy in the form of the City Deal.
3.16 In the period 2008-19, the MHCLG Live Tables identify an equivalent of 19,416 housing completions, which means that in order to provide 37,000 homes in the period 2008-26 it will be necessary to deliver the remaining 17,584 in the period 37,000 homes to be delivered in the period 2008-26.2019-26 or an average of 2,512 per annum. However, the housing need identified in emerging Policy 1 of 40,550 homes 1 only provides for an average need of 2,028 homes per annum. The housing need of the Draft Local Plan therefore again does not provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the housing needs identified in the City Deal.
3.17 It is therefore evident that the Draft Local Plan does not meet any of the targets of the City Deal and that it is accordingly not effective, not justified, not positively prepared and inconsistent with national policy.
Previous assessments of need
3.18 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies that there was a need to deliver 44,714 homes from 2015-36 to accord with the City Deal. In the period 2015-18, the equivalent of 6,680 homes were delivered and so there is a residual need for 38,034 homes from 2018-36, or 2,113 per annum.
3.19 Assuming that this need remained constant across the period 2036-38, there would be a need for 42,260 homes to accord with the City Deal based on the latest assessment of housing need. The Local Plan does not therefore provide a sufficient number of homes to meet the latest assessment of need or to accord with the City Deal.

Comment

Representation ID: 22155

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

The housing need of students
3.20 The standard method is informed by the 2014-based household projections which assume that the five-year migration trends which were experienced in the period 2009-14 will be maintained. The Higher Education Statistics Authority (HESA) identified that University of East Anglia (UEA) had 16,640 students and the Norwich University of the Arts had 1,485 students in 2009 providing a total of 18,125, but that this had increased to 18,140 by 2014 with 16,265 at UEA and 1,875 at the University of Arts. The 2014-based projections which inform the standard method therefore assumes that the student population will increase by 15 people over five years or 3 per annum.
3.21 Paragraph 45 of the Draft Local Plan however indicates that the Universities in Norwich are expected to expand. In particular, the University of East Anglia (UEA) has announced plans to increase its students from 15,000 to 18,000 in the next decade, an increase of 300 students per annum.3.22 The increased migration of 297 students per annum3, even assuming that the student population of the University of the Arts remains constant, are not taken into account in the projections.
3.23 These additional students at UEA will clearly have an impact on the housing need in Greater Norwich which is not taken into account within the standard method. Either these will generate a need for an additional 2,970 bedspaces which is equivalent to 1,042 houses or if these students are accommodated in the housing stock it will be necessary to deliver an additional 1,042 homes to accommodate them. It will be necessary to deliver such accommodation to meet the objectively assessed needs and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP.
3.24 Once the needs of these additional students are taken into account this would increase the minimum local housing need from either 41,379 or 41,361 to either 42,421 or 42,403 homes over the plan period. This broadly accords with the 42,260 homes necessary to accord with the City Deal.

Comment

Representation ID: 22156

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

The needs of those in institutional accommodation
3.25 The SHMA for Central Norfolk identifies a need for 3,909 people aged 75 or over to be accommodated in residential institutions over the period 2015-36. The 2014 based institutional population projections identify an increase of 2,060 such people within the GNLP area over the period 2015-38 comprising 1,088 in Broadland, 291 in Norwich and 681 in South Norfolk.
3.26 In the period 2015-18, a total of 234 bedspaces in older persons communal establishments were built, including 7 in Broadland, 225 in Norwich and 2 in South Norfolk. This leaves a residual need for 1,826 bedspaces in the period 2018-36, comprising 1,081 in Broadland, 57 in Norwich and 679 in South Norfolk.
3.27 The household projections which inform both the SHMA and the standard method do not include this population and the SHMA correctly recognises that in the absence of 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments the population who would have occupied these will remain in the dwelling stock rather than releasing them as assumed in the projections.3.28 It is therefore apparent that there is a need for 1,826 bedspaces in communal establishments in addition to the standard method and that in the absence of such provision the housing requirement will need to increase as fewer dwellings will be released to the market. The number of dwellings that would not be released in the absence of such residential institutions is 987 using the calculation identified in the PPG (63-016a) comprising 584 in Broadland, 33 in Norwich and 369 in South Norfolk.
3.29 It will therefore either be necessary to make provision for the 1,826 bedspaces or increase the housing requirement by 987 homes to meet the objectively assessed needs within the GNLP and to accord with the Vision of the GNLP. This would result in a need for either 43,408 or 43,390 homes or to 42,421 or 42,403 homes and 1,826 bedspaces.

Comment

Representation ID: 22157

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

6. POLICIES 7.1-7.5 – THE SPATIAL STRATEGY
Policy 7.1 – Norwich Urban Area including the Fringe Parishes
6.1 Policy 7.1 details existing commitments and proposed allocations for the City Centre, East Norwich and elsewhere in the urban area including fringe parishes for housing and employment purposes. It also provides policies for retail, main town centre uses and leisure development.
6.2 A total of 30,560 new homes are proposed in the Norwich urban area for the plan period up to 2038, of which 26,165 homes (approximately 86%) are stated as comprising existing commitments. As currently proposed the Norwich urban area will provide 68.9% (approximately 70%) of housing land supply for the GNLP.
6.3 Closer examination of this source of supply demonstrates a reliance on brownfield regeneration sites and large urban extensions. These sources of supply are explored further below.
6.4 The Northern City Centre strategic regeneration area is dependent on the delivery of Anglia Square, a high density housing-led mixed-use redevelopment which was ‘called-in’ by the Secretary of State for the purpose of decision making on 21st March 2019 and is the subject of a public inquiry which commenced on 28th January 20207. The appeal Inspector will make recommendations to the Secretary of State however the site should not be relied upon for the delivery of a large quantum of homes until the Secretary of State allows the appeal. To that end the emerging GNLP should not place an over reliance on the allocation and should look to other sources of supply to meet its housing requirements.6.5 The East Norwich area is also identified as a strategic regeneration area on the GNLP Key Diagram with named brownfield sites including;
- Yare at Carrow Works
- the Deal Ground
- the Utilities Site- land in front of ATB Laurence Scott
6.6 It is of particular note that outline planning permission was granted at the Deal Ground in 2013 but no applications for the approval of reserved matters or for the discharge of conditions have since been submitted in the subsequent 7 years. This is indicative of the length of time that it can take to resolve issues on large brownfield sites prior to delivery.
6.7 The GNLP area is stated as having the long-term potential to deliver a new urban quarter and no certainty is provided that the named sites can deliver in the plan period up to 2038. Indeed, a master planned approach through a Supplementary Planning Document is proposed to co-ordinate the delivery of the area, including a local energy network and sustainable transport options.
6.8 The GNLP is therefore correct to suggest that East Norwich represents a long term growth option as the brownfield regeneration of historic industrial and former manufacturing areas takes many years of concerted effort, often with the intervention of the public sector to address funding gaps owing to constraints such as contamination, heritage and flood risk.
6.9 Much of the East Norwich Strategic Growth Area is located adjacent to existing water course including the Rivers Wensum and Yare therefore flood risk will represent an issue with regard to delivery.6.10 Moreover the Reg 18 document highlights the uncertainty over the Britvic/Unilever Carrow Works site, this is the largest regeneration site shown in the Key Diagram (Map 9) for the east Norwich Strategic Growth Area, therefore assumptions made over the quantum of housing to be delivered from this brownfield source should be questioned until there is further clarity over the availability of the site. To that end the emerging GNLP should not place an over reliance on the new East Norwich allocation (1,200 homes) and should look to other sources of supply to meet its housing requirements.
6.11 Policy 7.1 also places emphasis on the delivery of large urban extensions (sites of over 1,000 dwellings) 20,765 of which are stated as being existing commitments and 2,815 of which are proposed as new allocations. Indeed, the proposed capacity from ‘elsewhere within the Norwich urban area’ represents 78% of the housing supply in the total Norwich Urban Area.6.12 Urban extensions often require the delivery of substantial highway and drainage infrastructure before the delivery of new homes can commence. The delivery of 19,944 new homes on urban extensions appears overly optimistic. This is especially the case given the previous over-optimism which is evident in the trajectories within the GNLP area which have overestimated supply by circa 25%. It is also considered to be over-optimistic given that this includes 3,000 homes on a single site at North Rackheath which is not expected to achieve its first completion until 2024/25 according to the Annual Monitoring Report leaving only 14 years of the plan period to deliver at an average rate of 214 dwellings per annum which has been achieved on very few sites nationally.
6.13 The last paragraph of Policy 7.1 states that a large contingency site has been identified at Costessey to be bought forward if delivery of housing in the GNLP does not meet local plan targets. Such an approach is not considered to be reasonable given the existing over reliance on large strategic sites in the Norwich Urban Area to deliver homes in the plan period.
6.14 To conclude, the over reliance on the Norwich Urban Area to deliver 30,560 new homes in the plan period is considered to be an overly optimistic strategy given the reliance on large brownfield regeneration sites that are as yet unconsented plus a heavy associated reliance on large urban extensions, plus the growth triangle, to deliver the quantum of homes proposed in the GNLP by 2038.6.15 An alternative strategy proposed by Pigeon, which seeks a greater percentage of development allocated to smaller, eminently deliverable sites at Main Towns and Key Service Centres, will not only help provide certainty to the delivery of the plan but provide for sustainable growth at locations with services and facilities, will assist the GNLP in evidencing a five-year housing land supply, provide a range and choice of sites to support delivery, and will provide new community facilities including land for education and healthcare purposes.
6.16 Our client reserves the right to comment further at Regulation 19 once housing trajectories are published, on the deliverability of sites and the associated soundness of the plan.

Comment

Representation ID: 22158

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Policy 7.2 - Main Towns
6.17 Policy 7.2 sets out the level of growth to be delivered in the plan period for the Main Towns of Aylsham, Diss, Harleston, Long Stratton and Wymondham.Collectively these towns will provide 6,342 homes, approximately 14% of housing growth for the plan period.
6.18 Paragraph 308 of the GNLP states that these towns play ’a vital role on the rural economy’ as they ‘provide employment opportunities and services for rural hinterlands’. It goes on to say that the settlements are ‘the engines of rural growth’.
6.19 Accordingly, it is necessary to make appropriate provision at these highly sustainable settlements to ensure that the rural economy is supported and that local housing needs are addressed including at Wymondham.

Comment

Representation ID: 22159

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Policy 7.4 – Village Clusters
6.20 The GNLP proposes a disproportionately high level of growth at the Village Clusters, a significant proportion of which are on as yet unknown sites to be identified in the South Norfolk Village Clusters Housing Site Allocations Plan.
6.21 Village Clusters are by definition less sustainable locations for growth and accordingly it would be expected that development would be restricted to that necessary to support rural or local needs. However, the GNLP seeks to direct more development to such settlements than to Key Service Centres which have a relatively good range of services, access to public transport and employment opportunities and play a vital role in serving the rural areas according to paragraph 333 of the GNLP. Similarly, paragraph 308 identifies that the Main Towns serve the wider hinterlands including these Village Clusters. This would suggest that the needs of rural areas would be more sustainably provided thorough development at the Key Service Centres and Main Towns contrary to the strategy proposed in the GNLP. The GNLP strategy is even less sustainable, given that development at the Key Service Centres and Main Towns provides the opportunity to enhance community facilities which serve the rural areas.
6.22 Furthermore, the reliance upon a specific contribution from the unknown sites yet to be identified in South Norfolk may require unsustainable sites to be brought forward rather than identifying more sustainable sites now. In the absence of such specific sites being identified and allocated this will also adversely affect the housing land supply position of the Councils and provide for a lack of certainty going forward.

Comment

Representation ID: 22160

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 2019-38 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy.3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.

Comment

Representation ID: 22161

Received: 16/03/2020

Respondent: Pigeon Investment Management Ltd

Agent: Pegasus Group

Housing Requirement
The minimum housing need
3.3 The foreword to the Draft Local Plan identifies a requirement for about 44,500 homes over the next 20-years. This is clarified in Policy 1 which identifies a housing requirement for 44,340 homes in response to a need for 40,550.
3.4 The need for 40,550 homes is identified as having been calculated using the standard method according to Table 6 and the box at the bottom of page 53.
3.5 The standard method provides the minimum local housing need according to the PPG (2a-004) and is calculated using the average household growth for 10 consecutive years, with an affordability uplift based on the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratio of the preceding year1.
3.6 The Draft Local Plan covers the period from 1st April 2018. In order to establish the minimum local housing need for the plan period it is therefore necessary to calculate either the standard method at 2018; or to calculate the current standard method and apply this to the remainder of the plan period in addition to the number of completions which have already occurred.
3.7 In the case of the Greater Norwich Plan Area, the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2018, namely 2018-28, was 400 in Broadland, 510 in Norwich and 704 in South Norfolk. The median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios in 2017 were 9.82, 6.93 and 8.91respectively. Using these figures, the minimum local housing need over the plan period equates to 41,379 homes.
3.8 Alternatively, the minimum local housing need from 2019 onwards can be calculated using the average household growth over the 10 consecutive years from 2019, namely 2019-29, with the affordability ratios of 2018 applied. The average household growth was 397, 505 and 691 respectively and the median workplace-based house price to earnings ratios were 9.23, 7.03 and 8.78 respectively. These figures produce a minimum local housing need of 2,024 homes per annum which equates to 38,460 homes over the period 2019-38. The number of housing completions in 2018/19 need to be added to this figure to provide the minimum local housing need over the plan period. MHCLG Live Tables identify that there were 2,757 housing completions, as well as 260 student bedspaces and 91 other bedspaces completed in this year. Once the appropriate conversion factors as identified in the PPG (68-034) and the PPG (63-016a) are applied this would equate to 2,901 houses2 completed in 2018/19. In addition to the minimum local housing need of 38,460 over the period 2019-38 this would produce a minimum local housing need for 41,361 homes over the plan period.
3.9 Once the median house price to earnings ratio for 2019 and the number of housing and bedspace completions in 2019/20 are available, it will be possible to provide yet another calculation of the minimum local housing need based on the completions in the period 2018-20 and the minimum local housing need over the period 2020-38. However, given the consistency of the preceding figures it would be expected that this would again be broadly consistent.3.10 In either case, it is apparent that the standard method has been miscalculated within the Draft Local Plan as it is below the minimum local housing need of either 41,379 or 41,361. Policy 1 and all other references to a need for 40,550 are therefore not justified nor are they consistent with national policy.3.11 Furthermore, the Government has identified that it intends to review the standard method by September 2020. As the Local Plan is not intended to be submitted for examination until June 2021, it is likely that the Local Plan will need to respond to the new standard method, whatever that may be.